Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
